The Iowa Caucus – The Starting Gun

iowa caucusThe 2016 election race is now off and running with the completion of the Iowa caucuses, traditionally the first election of the primary season. This long-anticipate date gives us the first actual glimpse of what this year’s elections hold in store.

Up until now, all we’ve seen are poll results, but polls aren’t necessarily an accurate forecaster of how people will vote. A lot depends on who takes the poll and who actually goes to the voting booth, those two groups are not always the same.

This time, the polls were wrong; and that might actually be a good thing. Has the polls been right, Donald Trump would have won the Republican caucus. That might have been enough to show everyone that his ultimate nomination was inevitable, affecting the rest of the primary season. But as it was, he was beaten out by Ted Cruz, totally transforming the fabric of the primaries.

The Democrats – The Undercard Event

Of the two, the Republican primary was much more interesting than the Democrat one. And I’m saying that because the Democrat race for the nomination has basically been a contest between Bernie and Hillary to promise the most freebies to anyone who votes for them.

There was one other Democrat candidate who was hanging around the fringes of the primaries, Martin O’Malley. Sadly for O’Malley, the media basically ignored him, making his ultimate demise inevitable. Maybe if Hillary gets indicted and loses her place as the presumed candidate, he can come back in the race and give Bernie a run for his money; but for now, it’s so long Martin.

O’Malley got less than one percent of the vote, which left a touch over 99 percent for Bernie and Hillary to fight over. Surprisingly, the difference was so close that they had to do a coin toss in six different districts. All six times, Hillary won, giving her the edge over Sanders, with a final count of 50% to 49%.

There’s been some word that the Democrat caucus wasn’t exactly honest and that Bernie should have actually won; but I doubt much will come of that. Democrats are crooked and so it’s not surprising that their caucuses are too. Besides, the Iowa caucus is only about one percent of the total delegate votes, meaning there is still plenty of time for both of them.

The Republicans – The Main Event

On the Republican side, we saw a lot of action. In a sense, that’s a bit funny, because the Democrat Party’s way of holding caucuses is much more animated and exciting than the Republican one is. But, in this presidential race, all of the interesting activity has been on the Republican side; everyone expects Hillary to get the nomination for Democrat queen, so the contest is almost a joke.

The crowding of the Republican field has been part of what’s made it interesting. While a few have dropped out, including one who gave up after the Iowa caucus, there are still 10 candidates who are running for the nomination. But the real contest is down to three of those candidates.

While Ted Cruz was the first to announce his candidacy and Jeb Bush was presumed to be the Republican establishment’s choice, it has been Donald Trump who has dominated the race up to this point. His brash manner of expression, saying things that seem politically incorrect and inflammatory, has captured the news media and kept his name in front of people all across the country.

Actually, Trump has run a masterful campaign, at least from the viewpoint of publicity. He has probably written a few new chapters in any political operative’s plan book, with his total domination of the news and his manipulation of the media. Where most politicians are wary of the media, even Democrat ones who the media is in love with and protects, Trump has called them out and challenged them to ignore him. His in your face manner has kept the cameras on him, saving him money on advertising, as the media has done it for him.

But a good publicity campaign isn’t quite the same as a good political campaign, as I suspect The Donald is finding out. While Trump has gained a lot of attention and popularity, he hasn’t build the grass-roots infrastructure that is needed to get the vote out. This showed in his failure to win the Iowa caucus, even though polls put him 10 to 20 percent in the lead.

There were actually two upsets in this caucus. The first was Ted Cruz, who stole Trump’s place as the number one candidate. Winning by 4 percent, Cruz showed that he had the solid backing of conservatives and evangelicals. He received more votes in the caucus than anyone else in history.

That was a definite flip-flop, after the way Trump has led in the polls. Whether or not it is indicative of what’s going to happen in other states has yet to be seen. But by upsetting Trump’s apple cart here, Cruz has ensured that the primaries will be a contest and not just a love-fest for Trump.

Part of Cruz’s strategy has always been to position himself to gather in Trump’s voters when Trump inevitably imploded. But that’s not what we saw happen. Trump chose not to go to the debate in Iowa, which many think insulted the people of Iowa. If it did, that could explain his loss of votes. But even then, the surprise for Cruz was that those voters went to Marco Rubio, not to him.

That has made this a definite three-man race. Ted Cruz won the caucus, with 28% of the vote, Donald Trump came in second, with 24% of the vote and Marco Rubio came in third, with 23% of the vote. While Cruz clearly won, it wasn’t by a landslide. There is no question that the other two are still in the race. As for everyone else that’s running, I think they’re going to get the consolation prize as “has beens,” even the likable Dr. Carson.

This split between the three of them is extremely interesting, as well as being very unusual. We actually have three totally different political positions here. This isn’t choosing between one guy who wears a black suit and one who wears a navy blue one, this is between red, blue and yellow.

Cruz is the true conservative, with a reputation for being the most conservative member of the Senate; Trump, the populist, with an almost cult-like following (a bit reminiscent of Obama there) and Rubio, who the establishment has backed as their own moderate candidate.

Caucus results

What’s Happening to the Republican Party?

Just looking at those three candidates and their differences, it’s clear that we’re seeing a clear division in the Republican Party. For several years now, the party leadership has been at odds with their own voter base. While there are Republican voters who are conservatives, the strength of the party has been its conservative base. Yet, the leadership has sought to put forth moderate candidates, thinking they could garner more of the minority vote. Yet in the process, they’ve alienated their own base.

Now the base has a true conservative candidate they can get behind and they are doing so. If no other lesson comes out of the Iowa caucuses, that one does. This is a mixed state, yet there were enough true conservatives in it to catapult Cruz to the top spot in the caucuses. That means that he’s likely to have an even bigger lead in states which are truly conservative.

While Trump has a healthy following, there is still a chance that he will fall. If he does, it will be hard and fast. Each time he comes out with another one of his outrageous statements, there’s been risk associated with it. Granted, it’s been a well calculated risk, with him merely repeating what a lot of the American people are saying, but it’s still a risk. All it would take is one of those statements backfiring and he’d end up on the sidelines.

So the real race to watch at this point would be the race between Cruz and Rubio, at least from seeing the future of the Republican Party. While the establishment has thrown their weight against Cruz, it appears that the people have thrown their weight in favor of him. If Cruz wins the nomination, it could serve as a wake-up call for the party and an opportunity for some real realignment of the party’s priorities.

But of course, that would require the Republican Party’s leadership listen to the people and what they are saying. Sounds a bit far-fetched to me. Washington has gone so far from listening to the people, that I’m not sure they can learn how to again. Cruz listens, but he’s only been there one term; he probably isn’t infected yet. Few others do and those are also relative newcomers to the Washington scene.

I’m not going to tell you who to vote for, that’s your decision to make. But I will ask that you make an informed decision. Decide what you stand for and then see which of the candidates stand for the same things.

Even more importantly, see which ones stand for the opposite. The last thing you want to do is vote for someone who’s stated position is the opposite of one of your own closely held values, regardless of what else that candidate says.

16_620x110

This article has been written by Bill White for Survivopedia.


Print page
Written by

Bill White is the author of Conquering the Coming Collapse, and a former Army officer, manufacturing engineer and business manager. More recently, he left the business world to work as a cross-cultural missionary on the Mexico border. Bill has been a survivalist since the 1970s, when the nation was in the latter days of the Cold War. He had determined to head into the Colorado Rockies, should Washington ever decide to push the button. While those days have passed, the knowledge Bill gained during that time hasn’t. He now works to educate others on the risks that exist in our society and how to prepare to meet them. You can send Bill a message at editor [at] survivopedia.com.

Latest comments
  • I actually think Donald Trump is going to walk away with the whole thing! Rubio is a young guy that wants to be a professional politician and his failings are beginning to show up. He must go back on training wheels for a few more years. Cruz has been exposed as a cheater in the Iowa Caucus. Myself, I have always been wary of him because of his wife and the big banks and wall street connections. That would give total power and no restrictions for the big banks and wall street. We better get behind Trump even more!

    (12)
    (0)
    • Everyone needs to read Dwight Kehoe's commentary at TPath. http://www.tpath.org/tpath-takes-a-stand.html He is correct that neither Cruz nor Rubio are eligible because they are NOT natural born citizens. The question I have is who would get those votes if the GOP would honor the constitution and remove their nominations? Would it then be a real race between Carson and Trump? Also, to call Cruz a conservative is a joke as he is a CFR shill who has licked the boots of the establishment when it comes to sacrificing the rights of the people.

      (5)
      (1)
      • And Donald Trump has supported more Democrats than Republicans. And don't forget about his ties to foreign mobsters. NBC has purchased some BBC programs which slam Trump and if he's the nominee, those pieces are going to run stateside. He's gonna get slammed and hard. No way will he ever get to be President.

        (0)
        (0)
  • Cruz CheaTED. That doesn't mean the polls are wrong it just means that he CheaTED.
    Very simple!

    (5)
    (1)
    • I agree JR. He has lied about his eligibility as well.

      (4)
      (1)
  • I am thinking of putting in a and pump on my well. We live in a secluded subdivision, but our well is right in front of our house. My wife and I are both leary of putting the pump right in front where everyone can see it. Have any suggestions?

    (0)
    (0)
    • Steve,
      I have been considering doing the same. My well location is also in the front of my house and I have the same concerns!
      Let me know if you receive any good ideas.

      Regards,
      Jerry

      (0)
      (0)
      • My grandparents had a well and a pump in the front yard. I never heard that anyone thought anything about it. Of course, they lived on a farm on a lightly-traveled road.

        (0)
        (0)
  • A nice analysis on both the Dems and Repubs side of the race. As a bit of a personal catharsis, there is two things that I would like to add that have been omitted from all analyses that I have seen.
    1) The invisible 300 pound gorilla in this election is morality, and that starts with the abortion issue and proceeds to the many other moral failures of our day. Our country's moral decline has been forced into the background because it has gone on so long that it is deemed no longer news worthy... but it is still there at the gut level in many of us who believe it to be the most relevant issue in our country's decline.
    2) The economy... No one on the republican side is talking about our immense debt. The dems aren't talking about it either, and as was stated in the article they continue to only talk about what they can give away for free! The republicans are going to bomb this and that, and make the military stronger, and so on, but how will we fund that with our increasing debt when no other country will buy us out of hock, and the dow has fallen to 4,000 (it's likely on its way right now).
    So, because of our moral weakness and its attendant narcissism we are in a big pickle!

    (2)
    (1)
  • I'm personally a Carson supporter, and I like Rand Paul to a degree, though I disagree on some points. I believe those two are the most honest and genuine of the bunch and have integrity. Although Cruz is the "most conservative" candidate, I have trouble with blanket conservatism not based on biblical values. Cruz maliciously told voters in Iowa that Carson was out of the race in order to garner their votes. Self-ambitious dishonesty is hardly a conservative value, and in my view this guy is much like a slick used car salesman or a TV preacher with his fingers on your wallet.
    Sadly the media and the party have ignored Ben Carson largely, though you couldn't get more "grass roots" than this guy. He vowed not to run unless the people insisted he did, and he was literally petitioned into the race by the people.
    If it comes down to the current top three I will have to go with Rubio. I disagree with the "moderate" terminology simply because he believes in working out a reasonable path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. I have friends who are in that category who are hard workers and good people working to keep their families alive across the border. Yes, our borders need to be secured and immigration laws enforced, but that should be balanced with a plan for generally law-abiding immigrants to work out citizenship or long-term work visas at low cost. It's a complex issue, where a simpleton "kick them all out" doesn't work.
    Love is a conservative value; and conservatism without love is not true conservatism.

    (1)
    (3)
    • I like your message Kevin but in the grand scheme of things no one cares abou us. I don't make 20 plus million a year so all those so called "for the people candidates". I agree with you that "love" is part of conservatism but do we not have a path to citizenship? My father came to this country back in 1967. He worked hard, learned to speak English and worked his way though the path to citizenship. I'll agree that a path to citizenship needs to be revamped but I just can not agree with giving illegals an easier path. My father feels the same way. If you came to this country illegally then you knew what you were doing. In my opinion that shows me that you don't care about our laws nor our Constitution and can not abide by that.

      C.Castellucci
      USMC

      (1)
      (0)
      • C. Castellucci - Thanks for the response. I think it's a bit of a generalization to say none of them care about us. My closest cousin, and one of my best friends separately have this discussion with me from time to time. If they ever meet they'll be instant best buds and they'll probably listen to Alex Jones together, reminisce about Zeitgeist and send each other links to stuff on chem trails.
        I'm not presuming, but guessing you'd be grouping up with those two if we were all at a party or gathering of some sort.
        Though I like Alex Jones and think he exposes all kinds of corruption, I think he's wrong on points too. And in the areas he's wrong, he's REALLY wrong. Kinda like the grandpa at the table with dementia who used to be on-point with everything, but now he swears his wife is a spy for the Russians, and Hitler and the Japanese have been laying low since '45 until they return to bomb Pearl Harbor again. There's a bit of a sheeple thing going on with Libertarians as well. We've become a society with a cliquish, cultic mentality, and that's scary. Instead of considering various issues and subjects on their own merit, we rather side with "the Republicans" or "Democrats" or "Libertarians" or "Green Party". Very, very rarely will you find people these days who will say, "I'm a Democrat, but I disagree with their view on abortion," or "I'm Libertarian, but I disagree with other Libertarians on Israel". In either of those cases the person would be mocked and told he must not be one of them. Very sad. As a result of this type of cliquism people now walk lock step with their group rather than with principle or truth. The other guy is the enemy or the fool or the puppet, so nothing they say can be true and everything they do is wrong. But the reality is truth is it's own entity, and it remains truth even if spoken by a liar. Every person or group is wrong on points (some way more than others). Instead of hearing various views from various sources and forming an opinion, people now ride with their Gang and demonize or glorify sources, making any information that comes from a particular source either heresy or absolute truth. Example: "Oh, you must have heard that on Fox News! Those people are liars." That's a blanket demonization of the source, rather than an honest consideration of the data. It's easier that way, but intellectually dishonest. It's healthier to consider the data from multiple sources and even opposing viewpoints, then make an informed conclusion. Also to be challenged on your conclusions occasionally and consider "Maybe I'm wrong on this, or maybe this source I follow is just wrong on this particular subject." I find this clique mentality tragic.
        I agree with Alex and the Libertarians on many things, but one point where I strongly disagree is this idea that every Republican and Democrat politician is just a puppet for the Trilateral Commision/Illuminati, etc. Not true. I had two uncles who were senators. I absolutely believe many are bought, but many are not, and I do not believe elections are already decided. They have strong influence and and fraud and corruption going on, but at this point it's not absolute, though they would like it to be. We still do have a choice for now.
        As for the immigration issue, Italy doesn't border the U.S. When living in a corrupt, poverty-ridden third world country bordering the land of opportunity it's a different story. To be clear: I'm opposed to illegal immigration, but I believe in merciful recourse for people who have established themselves here and are not leaches on the system, but work and benefit the society. Something like a fine and a financially reasonable means to continue working while making payments toward a citizenship. Those who reject the plan should get the boot. Pretty simple.
        God bless, and much respect.

        (3)
        (0)
        • Kudos to you Kevin! With your response you have made look at things from a different angle or different light if you will. You are absolutely right when you state that people just fall in line with their party. I share the same sentiment as you about your whole reply. Thank you so much for sharing. I wish more people could respect each others opinion with having to resort to pointing fingers and stating your a Dem, Repub, or whatever so they choose to devalue anything and everything that someone from the opposite side has to say. I apologize to you and your family for calling every politician a crook. You are correct when you say that some politicians have our back's. Just from reading your reply I have gathered you have integrity and I'm positive your family members were great politicians who looked out for the people. Again thank you for sharing, Godspeed, and much respect to you as well!!!

          C. Castellucci
          USMC

          (1)
          (0)
          • Thanks C. I agree on the finger pointing stuff. I appreciate your comment. My uncles are/were both great guys.

            God bless!

            (1)
            (0)
        • Just one more thing Kevin. In my opinion I feel both sides, Dems and Repubs, are doing their part to destroy the Bill of Rights. I'm not talking about Congress but these last 2 Presidents have made it obvious to me that they are trying to destroy the Bill of Rights. Maybe I'm being little conspiracy theorist here but W had the Patriot Act which really destroyed 2 of the 1st ten amendments and now O is trying to take guns. I don't think O will succeed in taking our guns but there are other ways to get guns out of citizens like making ammunition so expensive that it makes guns useless cue no one can afford the bullets. Again a little conspiracy theorist I know but my conspiracy is based on my observations. I don't know if you have read anything on the Trans-Pacific Partnership but in my opinion nothing good comes out of that trade agreement for a Blue Collar worker. I shouldn't even had started on that!!! I just opened up another can of worms!!! Have a BLESSED WEEKEND KEVIN!!!

          C. Castellucci
          USMC

          (2)
          (0)
          • I don't think that's over the top at all. The term "conspiracy theory" is often used to demean any discussion of conspiracies and discredit them. Yet conspiracies happen every day in businesses, families, acquaintances. To assume people conspire in these forums and not in government is just gullible. There are plenty of conspiracies happening at high levels. I just think it's important to not consider everything conspiratorial. There's legit stuff happening, and plenty of sneaky underhanded stuff. You're right on ammo. That's how Brazil did it. You can own a gun, but ammo is outlawed. And yet Brazil is flooded with gun violence because the criminals manage to buy from black market sources, including corrupt cops.

            (2)
            (0)
          • I read the whole exchange between Kevin and Castellucci and I must say my faith in Humanity has been restored. Kevin, you are a very thoughtful and articulate person. I am sure if we met, we'd be fast friends. You should check out my blog. It should be entertaining for you. -> http://awake-inthe-darkness.com/

            (0)
            (0)
    • Cruz didn't lie about Carson. He was merely repeating a tweet from someone in the Carson campaign that had been picked up by CNN.

      (0)
      (0)
      • That's their sneaky excuse, but there are testimonies from constituents who received calls stating Carson had dropped out, and from those at the caucuses reporting similar statements from Cruz staffers. Furthermore, the Cruz campaign has outright lied about Rubio's voting on Planned Parenthood defunding. And there's plenty more dirty, dishonest politicking where that came from. Ted Cruz is a slick used car salesman type who will do or say anything to get the sale. Both he and his campaign manager are dispicable manipulators in my view. Dishonesty is NOT a conservative value. The only way I'll ever vote for that guy is if it's between him and a bigger liar like Hillary, or a socialist.

        (0)
        (0)
  • Bill it is hilarious to me that you just call the DEMS crooked. You have to be kidding me??? Who was responsible for passing the Patriot Act? Who lied about WMD's? In my opinion EVERY FREAKING POLITICIN, REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, IS A CROOK!!!! In order to be a politician you have to lie, cheat, and steal. Yesterday I read that a veteran freezes to death but immigrants get food and shelter. Who is responsible for that? I am sick and tired of people throwing their ideologies around bu don'at know about you Bill but I'm tired of being the worlds police and I'm a MARINE.

    C. Castellucci
    USMC

    (0)
    (0)
    • I messed that up Bill, sorry. I meant to say I am sick and tired of people throwing their ideologies around but the majority of these people are like sheep to me. I don't know about you Bill but I'm tired of being the worlds police and I'm a MARINE.

      C. Castellucci
      USMC

      (0)
      (0)

LEAVE A COMMENT